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E“c岛r—YFs’†‘农业“I结构—^变动t–k‹ž;经济‰ÈŠwo”ÅŽÐ,1998”N5ŒŽB

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Aims of the Contemporary China Research Base, Institute of Social Science, the University of Tokyo 

                                   Contemporary China Research Base Steering Committee

The Contemporary China Research Base was established in the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science (ISS) in April 2007 to conduct research on Economic Growth and Stability in China. The Base is a collaboration between the University of Tokyo and the National Institutes for the Humanities (NIHU), an Inter-University Research Institute Corporation in Japan.

Paralleling the course of the Hu Jintao regime which came to power in the fall of 2002, the Chinese economy is now entering a transitional phase. The era of 'unlimited labor supply' from rural China, once the backbone of the country's growth, is now coming to an end. The market for younger labor is growing tighter in urban areas, while expanding economic activity is bringing environmental and resource constraints to the forefront. The issues of the adjustment of the urban-rural labor force distribution and the coordination between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors can no longer be avoided. To build a more stable society, and to adjust and manage resource allocation smoothly, improvements must be made to the social safety net, income distribution, the legal system and the regulation of areas such as ownership, governance and the environment. A more democratic political system will be required to safeguard these new institutions.

China's economic expansion is making a strong impact on the international community in both the political and economic spheres. Meanwhile, under multilateral frameworks such as the IMF and WTO, as well as intra-regional arrangements such as the China-ASEAN FTA, China itself is feeling pressure to improve foreign economic relations and achieve domestic change, such as better coordination among different industrial sectors and the development of more robust legal institutions.

The pursuit of area studies grounded in the social sciences has been a core mission of the ISS ever since its foundation in 1946, with scholars in economics, law and political science engaging in Chinese Studies within their respective disciplines. The University of Tokyo signed an exchange agreement with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in 1986. As the University's principal interface for this agreement, the ISS has used joint research projects, researcher exchange and visiting professor programs with CASS-affiliated institutes to develop an extensive track record of exchange activity and a diverse research network.

Building on these foundations, the ISS Contemporary China Research Base was launched with the aim of contributing to the development of Contemporary Chinese Studies, not only within the University of Tokyo, but throughout Japan and across the world. The Base envisages two major components of activity over its five-year period of operation.

Research Group 1: Institutions, Policies and Economic Development (leader: Tajima Toshio)

Attentive to the challenges of structural adjustment and institutional reform in China's economic sector and the realignment of economic and legal institutions occasioned by China's membership of the WTO, this group will chiefly address issues concerning the domestic economy, institutions and policies, including: (a) macroeconomic policy and fiscal / monetary reform, and the relationship between government and private enterprise; (b) the development of systems of civil and commercial law / intellectual property law / environmental law, and issues of ownership and governance; (c) structural adjustment in the agricultural sector and land use / community self-government; (d) labor markets / labor force mobility / social security; and (e) economic ideology and perceptions of society and history, etc. Research activity is organized around three subgroups: (1) structural adjustment and economic policy (the 'Economy Subgroup'), (2) intensified reform / opening and reorganization of economic law systems (the 'Law Subgroup'), and (3) agricultural and rural problems in a period of transition (the 'Rural Issues Subgroup').

Research Group 2: Foreign Economic Relations and Industrial Structure (leader: Marukawa Tomoo)

From the standpoint of China's economic internationalization and increasingly apparent resource limitations, as well as economic partnerships and industrial adjustment in Asia, this group will chiefly address issues in China's industrial development and foreign economic relations, including: (a) trends of foreign trade and intra-regional economic partnerships in China and the Asian region; (b) foreign economic relations pertaining to investment, foreign exchange and intellectual property rights; (c) industrial agglomerations and international division of labor in Asia; (d) offshore development and the growth of outsourcing to China; and (e) resource constraints and development-and-import schemes / official development assistance (ODA) / resource diplomacy. Research activity is organized around three subgroups, focusing on: (1) the structure of trade in connection with China both within and outside Asia and possibilities for East Asian economic partnerships (the 'Trade Subgroup'), (2) industrial agglomeration in China and the Asian region (the 'Industrial Agglomeration Subgroup'), and (3) resource constraints in China and development-and-import schemes / ODA / resource diplomacy (the 'ODA Subgroup').

The two Research Groups and six Subgroups operate in a manner enabling cross-participation, with research activities and workshops conducted on a routine basis, as well as field survey and research exchange activities in China and elsewhere, and the publication of research findings. Research seminars are held roughly twice a month at the ISS or on the Komaba Campus, and are generally open to the public. Further information on research activities and seminars is posted regularly on our website: http://web.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kyoten/index.html.

These research activities are supported by a secretariat, consisting of an Associate Professor stationed full-time in an administrative and research office in the ISS, as well as two Research Assistants responsible for the Hongo and Komaba area. In addition, a residential facility for field research in Beijing (and the rest of China) is provided by the ISS Beijing Research Base established in October 2007 within the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Research in the Base's first year of operation has already yielded two publications (both in Japanese): Miyajima Yoshiaki and Oizumi Keiichiro (2008) The Rise of China and Intra-Regional Trade in East Asia: Analysis of the World Trade Atlas, 1996-2006, ISS Contemporary Chinese Studies No. 1; and Tajima Toshio and Furuya Shinsuke, eds. (2008) Offshore Development, Staffing Service, and Vocational Education in China's Software Industry, ISS Contemporary Chinese Studies No. 2.

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The Base has also launched projects in the educational sphere. In the winter term of the 2007 academic year, a course on 'Multiple Dimensions of Japan-China Relations' was offered across all graduate schools under the Japan-Asian Studies Program of the Asian Studies Network at the University of Tokyo (ASNET). This course is being taught once again in the summer of 2008. In a similar vein, a half-year seminar on 'Revised Chinese Modern History' is set to be taught on the Komaba Campus (Graduate School of Arts and Sciences) in the 2008 winter term.

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The Lewis Turning Point and China fs Aim for a Harmonious Society

                                                 Tajima Toshio  

                             Tajima Toshio is a Professor of Chinese Economy and the Director of the Contemporary China Research Base at the Institute of Social Science at the University of Tokyo

 

                                          Institute of Social Science

                                               University of Tokyo

                                                         Hongo 7-3-1

                                      Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033

In 2007 discussions were held on China fs eunlimitedf supply of labor and its advance toward the eLewis turning pointf, and the Contemporary China Research Base was established to conduct research on eEconomic Growth and Stability in China f. In recent years, shortages of young laborers and wage increases in urban and coastal China have been remarkable. O ur research activities have focused primarily on understanding the extent of the economic implications of China fs contemporary policy issues, and determining how to frame them in terms of long-term economic development.  

However, there is actually a surplus of middle-aged labor in China fs rural regions. Looking at the demographic features, Chinafs labor force will enter a phase of definite growth over the next several years, and the dominant debate is that this is the medium-term process leading up to the surpassing of the Lewis turning point. It is commonly accepted that Japan surpassed its Lewis turning point around 1960, but the post-war Baby Boom Generation (1947 – 49) did not reach working age until 1963 and later, so the nation continued to enjoy demographic dividends even after the turning point. Real development of the regional labor market probably began in the early 1970s in Japan . However, in light of the sea change in the Japanese society and economy from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s, it is reasonable to say that China , since entering the 21st century, is in the midst of unprecedented social change.  

As a member of the same generation that experienced Japan during this era, I shall briefly recount the situation.  

Around the time of the Lewis turning point, the relation of supply and demand for labor grew tight. It was a sellerfs market. The ratio of labor distribution rose, and industrial development and export-oriented industrialization that relied on an abundant supply of low-cost labor faced revision. Short-term employment relations receded as laborers and unions continued to gain clout, and the spotlight fell on skills development via internal labor markets. Worker protection advanced, universal healthcare was implemented and a public pension system was launched. With the expansion of the labor market, farmers began taking on second jobs as the agricultural structure adjusted and agricultural protection was brought in line with these new policies. Higher education became common as labor force participation and birthrates fell. A middle class was created, and consumer durables like appliances and automobiles came into widespread use. Social interest in public and environmental issues rose, and social restrictions on industrial activity grew tight. After weathering the Nixon Shocks in 1971 (i.e. the transition from managed to floating currency and the thaw in relations with China ) and the first Oil Shock in 1973, Japan fs rapid economic growth came to an end.  

The 5-year project of the ISS Contemporary China Research Base is an attempt to comparatively observe the social and economic changes in China as it approaches the Lewis turning point in light of Japan fs experiences.  

In this article, I will discuss the research conducted in the 2007 academic year by the Economy Subgroup and the Rural Issues Subgroup.  

The Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao regime came into being at the 16th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in the Fall of 2002. It championed a eCare-for-the-People Policyf and eBuilding a Harmonious Societyf, and offered solutions to the ethree rural issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmersf. This approach differs from the previous neoliberal trend toward deregulation, market economization and ownership reform, and it appears that China is aiming for social democratic or Keynesian policy management. But the predominant discipline in China today is imported Neoclassical economics, with a trace of left-wing Marxist economics remaining.  

In light of this situation, we invited Prof. Sun Ge of the Institute of Literature , Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) to serve as an ISS Visiting Professor, and held a workshop on recent changes in Chinese economic and social thought. Discussions covered the affinity between neoclassical trends and nationalism as observed in both Japan and China . The voice of caution is strong regarding the resurgence of Big Government in the wake of China fs traumatic planned economy, and the existence of any theoretical or ideological underpinnings in this policy transition appears to be rather flimsy.  

Given the shift to closer, mutually complementary economic ties between Japan and China , we conducted field surveys of cases in the software industry. Giving consideration to offshore software development due to the shortage of talent in Japan and the inevitability of staffing from overseas, we conducted interviews at over 100 software companies, human resources companies, and vocational education institutions in Dalian, Beijing, Xi-an, Chengdu, Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenyang and Suzhou regarding the development of the software industry in Chinafs coastal regions and the potential for industrial development inland. In the case of the software industry, direct communication in Japanese with customers and clients, among systems engineers and programmers, is necessary for creating a borderless division of labor. The issues faced are slightly different in nature than those in manufacturing.  

So-called Bridge Systems Engineers (Bridge SEs) serve as liaisons to overcome these problems and encourage effective offshore software development. Fluent in both Japanese and Chinese, Bridge SEs comprise a class of experienced leaders and managers. Dalian , Beijing and Shanghai are rich in human resources and, for the time being, they will maintain their competitive advantage, but skyrocketing wages and office building rents in these cities means there are also opportunities in the inland regions. This means that since there is already an oversupply of ordinary programmers throughout the country, regions will fight for veteran project managers, especially Bridge SEs fluent in foreign languages. The outcomes of this research were published in March 2008 in Tajima Toshio and Furuya Shinsuke, eds. (2008), Offshore Development, Staffing Service, and Vocational Education in Chinafs Software Industry, ISS Contemporary Chinese Studies No.2.  

In the Rural Issues Subgroup, the core mission is to observe social and economic changes in China as it approaches the Lewis turning point from the
perspective of agricultural development@and labor supply in light of the rural economy over the past few years. Speaking of agriculture, the shortage of labor and rising wage standards in non-agricultural sectors over the past several years has been caused by an increase in agricultural productivity and higher prices, both at home and abroad. This is also thought to be the result of agricultural protection policies put into effect since the Hu Jintao
-Wen Jiabao administration came to power. The Rural Issues Subgroup held a joint research seminar with the Trade Subgroup on the impact of the China-ASEAN FTA on farm product trade, and invited a Chinese agricultural policy official to give a report. In March 2008, the Rural Issues Subgroup began fixed-point surveys in suburban and rural regions on the topic of employment composition of the rural workforce and the structural adjustment of land use. However, since this coincided with anti-government demonstrations by minority ethnic groups in Lhasa in the Tibet Autonomous Region, research initially scheduled for the mountain villages of Gansu Province had to be suspended. This was an unexpected incident, but it was yet another opportunity to experience China fs serious ethnic and social issues—and the risks that come with them.

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